التحليل الاقتصادي لأثر متغيرات التنمية الزراعية في العراق باعتماد نموذج (VAR) للمدة (1990- 2021)

Abstract

Macroeconomic variables are one of the means by which the efficiency of the performance of economic sectors, including the agricultural sector, it measured, because it is concerned with studying how to reach the level of equilibrium for the sector, by knowing the changes that occur in it and its growth rates. The research relied on data for the phenomenon targeted by the study from during a time series that included the period (1990-2021). The statistical analysis it conducted for the economic model approved by the study using the (VAR) technique, which included the agricultural domestic product as a dependent factor, while the independent factors included the fixed cumulative capital and the labor force in the agricultural sector. In addition, agricultural loans, as well as the value of agricultural investments as dependent factors, as the model variables were determined and the time series static hypothesis it tested through counteraction by adopting the (Dicky Fuller Augmented) test. The economic analysis of the estimated model showed that there was a significant positive effect for each of the cumulative fixed capital, agricultural labor and the value of agricultural loans, as the partial elasticities of these variables amounted to (0.577), (0.0184) and (0.0602), respectively. While the analysis gave a significant negative effect of the variable value of agricultural investments, which had a flexibility of (-0.0529). Based on the results reached, the study recommended the need for efficient utilization of the infrastructure that forms part of the agricultural production sector, as well as increasing the level of technology in agricultural production, such as the use of agricultural mechanization and modern irrigation methods to expand agricultural investments. And adopting successful methods to manage the proper allocation of agricultural investment spending in order to avoid waste and thus avoid the negative impact of agricultural investment on the agricultural domestic product and then on the growth of the gross domestic product and the growth of the economy.