أثر كوفيد - 19 في بعض مؤشرات سوق العراق للأوراق المالية

Abstract

Based on its basic hypothesis of the sensitivity of financial market indicators to many traditional and non-traditional risks, and their being affected more and faster by some types of extreme and global risks, specifically and in addition to the research problem, this study is based on the Hypothesis there is a significant and one-way effect of the explanatory variables of the pandemic. Corona in the performance of financial markets, within a econometrics model that shows the impact of (new infections with the Covid-19 NC, total injuries TC, total deaths per million people TDPM, exchange rate EXC, oil price OIL, gold price) on the performance of the financial market represented by (The stock price index SP), As the study sought to diagnose the nature of this effect and measure its value and direction in the long and short term, targeting the Iraq stock market as a study sample and for a time series and with daily data that extended from January 2020 to June 2022, and for the number of observations of the time series (477) viewing for all study variables . The study relied on the Autoregressive Distributed Time Gaps Model (ARDL) methodology and the Econometric tests it included by adopting the data of those variables and for a daily time series, with (477) observations for each variable. It succeeded in proving its negative (reverse) moral impact on the general stock price index (SP), which indicates that the increase in total deaths per million people due to the Corona pandemic reduces the levels of the index, and investors should take into account the impact of extreme risks in financial market indices when formulating investment strategies. their own to enable them to make better investment decisions.